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National Hunt preview 2024-25

Kopek Des Bordes

4yo b g No Risk At All - Miss Berry (Cadoudal)

Trainer: W P Mullins

Owner: Monabeg Investments Limited

Form: 1

An eyecatching performance from Kopek Des Bordes in the George Mernagh Memorial Bumper at Fairyhouse in March has led to him being one of the most talked about novice hurdlers this season. Having travelled effortlessly through the first three quarters of the race, he merely had to be nudged out to extend thirteen lengths clear of the runner up. The form is solid if unspectacular, but it's the manner of the performance which highlights his potential. 

It remains to be seen if he is fully effective on good ground, as he shows a bit of a knee action. However it's got to be taken as a positive that his Nicky Henderson trained half sister Utopie Des Bordes was equally adept on any ground

Regarding where he would fit in come Cheltenham time, I would tentatively say the two miles five furlong Turners Novice Hurdle. With Mullins' commenting that he is a big staying chaser of the future, but also he has the speed for two miles, it would make it the most likely for me at this stage. However, as always, the horse will tell us when he debuts over hurdles. I'd say he's likely to start at two miles before being aimed at a graded race.

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Lucky Place

5yo b g Pastorius - Luckystar Du Frene (Perrault)

Trainer: Nicky Henderson

Owner: Mrs G Van Geest & M George

Form: 221224

Having seen confirmation that Lucky Place is staying over hurdles this season, I have one target in mind for him and that is the Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March. Despite only winning once last term he ran some very creditable races in defeat. Second in his first two starts, one bumper and one maiden hurdle, he was seemingly outpaced on good ground around the notoriously sharp track of Huntingdon. Upped in trip to two miles three furlongs with a slight ease in the ground, he was impressive in readily clearing away by thirteen lengths, with Doncaster clearly suiting better too. The form has worked out nicely, with the second and third both winning twice since, the fourth winning four times since and the sixth, ninth and eleventh all winning since.

 

Kept at two miles three furlongs Lucky Place went on to finish second at Taunton, beaten three quarters of a length behind Golden Ace. The subsequent exploits of the winner suggest he faced an impossible task that day trying to give her a stone in weight. Unbeaten since, Golden Ace went on to land the Grade Two Mares Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and is now rated 143.

Raised in class to contest the Grade 2 Classic Novices Hurdle on Cheltenham Trials Day, Lucky Place again ran a fine race in defeat, this time losing out by half a length to the very well regarded Gidleigh Park. His final run of the season came in the ultra competitive Coral Cup at the Festival. At a time when Nicky Henderson's stable was under a dark cloud he ran a very commendable race to finish fourth, beaten four and three quarter lengths. Having travelled nicely into the race from the rear, he found himself very wide coming down the hill and into the straight. Slightly outpaced he has kept on steadily up the hill after the last hurdle, and could well find further improvement when stepped up to three miles for the first time. It was a fine run for an inexperienced five year old in a race of this nature. The experience won't have been lost on him and his neat hurdling technique will always be a plus in these big field handicaps. 

From a rating of 140 if they can get him qualified I feel he'd go to the Pertemps Final with a live chance, a race that six year olds have a good record in recently. I'm not sure Henderson is a handicap target trainer however, so it may not be the plan, in which case he may find himself running in races such as the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton, throughout the season.

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Romeo Coolio

5yo b g Kayf Tara - Miss Bailly (Kapgarde)

Trainer: Gordon Elliott

Owner: KTDA Racing

Form: 1/12-51

In last years Cheltenham Festival Bumper, the horse who took the eye with the way he travelled into the race from the rear wasn't the winner, it was Romeo Coolio, who finished second. Having made a big move while still on the bridle coming down the hill, his effort flattened out slightly up the hill, though he did keep on nicely to hold his stablemate back in third. It was still a great run for one so inexperienced, and especially whose future was always going to be over obstacles. Disappointing when only fifth at Punchestown, he ran flat, but is not the first to follow up at Punchestown with a tame effort and certainly won't be the last.

Gordon seemed sure he was still weak last season, and issued positive updates early this season, that he'd strengthened up greatly over the summer and developed into a proper horse. It's fair to say this looked the case when he made his hurdling debut at Down Royal recently. Travelling like a high class horse, he already looks a very intelligent jumper. He met every hurdle barring the last on a lovely stride and jumped them properly. In tight at the last Romeo Coolio put in a short stride himself to navigate the hurdle without losing any ground which is a very good sign. Ultimately he's going to make a smashing chaser next year, but will clearly take high rank amongst this season two mile novice hurdlers.

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Sounds Victorius

5yo br g Champs Elysees - Sounds Charming (Presenting)

Trainer: W P Mullins

Owner: Bruton Street

Form: 214-4

As I seem to mention every year, the Albert Bartlett is the hardest ante-post race to predict pre-season, and is a race to get involved in more after Christmas. 

 

If I had to select one as of now it would be the Champs Elysees gelding, Sounds Victorius. In all four of his bumper starts he's shaped very much like a stayer and one who will thrive up in trip over hurdles. Debuting at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting he couldn't give 5lb to the Gordon Elliott trained Patter Merchant, going down by a neck in what became a match, however was noticeably keeping on very strongly in the shadow of the post. He ran a similar race on his second start at Punchestown. Outpaced before turning into the straight, he managed to get back up close home under a strong Patrick Mullins ride to pip Masterboy Davis. 

Stepped up in class to contest the Grade One Cheltenham Festival Bumper, he was sent off an unfancied 66/1 shot, the outsider of Mullins' eight contenders. The stronger all-round pace of a big field championship bumper was always going to see him in better light and he ran a fine race in fourth. Starting to feel the pinch coming down the hill when the market leaders hit the front, he kept on very well to finish fourth, beaten just five and a half lengths.

His final bumper start came in the Grade One at the Punchestown Festival. A slower gallop on better ground was never going to play to his strengths. He was unsurprisingly caught flat-footed when they quickened turning into the straight, keeping on at one pace to finish fourth again, behind the much speedier Redemption Day.

 

For one whose going to improve greatly for a trip over hurdles, he's ran fine races in defeat in Grade One company. I'd expect him to be aimed at a two miles four furlongs maiden hurdle, before going onto better things.

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Stellar Story

7yo b g Shantou - Bally Bolshoi (Bob Back)

Trainer: Gordon Elliott

Owner: Gigginstown House Stud

Form: U1/511/13241-4

Ever since his bumper days Stellar Story has had the look of a very strong stayer, and that proved to be the case over hurdles last season. A winner on debut over Navan's stiff two miles and four furlongs, Stellar Story was then a beaten favourite over the same course and distance in the Grade Two Navan Novice Hurdle. However this proved to be a strong race with the winner Slade Steel going on to land the Supreme Novice Hurdle and the fourth, Better Days Ahead also winning at the Cheltenham Festival, taking the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle.

Stepped up to two miles seven furlongs in another Grade Two at Limerick, the pedestrian gallop set by his stablemate Search For Glory was not in his favour, and when the dash for the line began turning in, he was outpaced but kept on at the line to be second to the Mullins' trained Loughglynn. He had plenty left in the tank evidenced by his two very big jumps at the last two hurdles.

Upped to Grade One company for the first time in the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, the drop in trip on slightly better ground didn't suit and he was outpaced and left to stay on into fourth place. Sent to contest the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, conditions were very much in his favour with the going described as heavy and the race being run on the notoriously stamina sapping New Course. Sat in behind the front running The Jukebox Man, Stellar Story jumped very well throughout the contest, and despite being outpaced turning into the straight, stayed on stoutly up the hill to lead on the line. It was a performance of a very strong stayer, who needs a proper test even at three miles. 

His final outing of the season came in the Grade One Three Miles Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival seven weeks later. Taking on some of those rivals who had finished behind him at Cheltenham, this test on good ground in the spring was never going to play to his advantages. Predictably outpaced he kept on well once more to be beaten six lengths by Dancing City whom he'd beaten at Cheltenham. It certainly wasn't a bad effort in a race which was more a test of speed even at the three miles trip. 

One thing looks obvious, and it's that Stellar Story is likely going to need in excess of three miles when he tackles fences. In Ireland throughout the winter, three miles on deep ground at the likes of Navan will be right up his street. Come the spring, The National Hunt Chase over three miles six furlongs at the Cheltenham Festival is very likely to be his number one target. The three miles of the Brown Advisory on the sharper Old Course will be too much of a speed test for him. Even over the longer trip he's likely to want a good cut in the ground, as there will possibly be speedier horses in the field. It would also be in his favour to set a decent pace in the race to emphasise his stamina. Having said that, his jumping style over hurdles with the shape he makes, tells me that he's likely to make a better chaser, and his jumping of fences could help alleviate some of that speed he lacks.

*Since writing the above the National Hunt Chase has now been altered to a 0-145 rated Handicap Chase, which lessens the chances of him being aimed at the race. It may be more likely he is aimed at the Irish Grand National now*

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Hurdlers

 

I'd love to see Constitution Hill back at his best, who wouldn't? I personally think he might well come back as good, but is not a betting proposition at the price with questions still unanswered. Lossiemouth will add extra excitement to the division, which could see us have a brilliant Champion Hurdle field in March, should they all get there unscathed. She looks seriously high class. You can set your clock by State Man, he is so solid and always runs his race. Although he never blows the field away or puts in a huge performance (like last years Champion Hurdle) his consistency has to be admired. I'd also like to see Mystical Power go down this route. Mullins has mentioned novice chasing or possibly stepping up in trip to three miles over hurdles. I feel he deserves to start down the two mile hurdling route. In a standard year he'd be a big player in a Champion Hurdle. 

The staying division looks really weak this season. Teahupoo is clearly going to take all the beating again, and it's hard trying to even pinpoint what will be taking him on in the Stayers Hurdle. I suspect Mullins' might aim one of his future novice chasers down this route, especially with Teahupoo likely to only run once before the Cheltenham Festival, there will be some decent prizes to be picked up throughout the season in Ireland. In the UK, Strong Leader and Langer Dan are likely to be aimed at the three mile graded hurdles and appear as almost default challengers because of the lack of depth in the division. Strong Leader could well have a good season and will likely take the beating in races such as the Long Distance Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle. He has never won at Cheltenham from four attempts however, and his trainer believes he doesn't like the undulations, so he may not even be aimed there. Ultimately his best chance will lie back in the Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree. Langer Dan would need to improve plenty to give Teahupoo a fright in March. It'll be interesting to see how he runs throughout the winter this season, with him also likely to be aimed at similar races to Strong Leader. At this early stage there doesn't look to be many horses you could name who'll actually run in the Stayers Hurdle.

 

Chasers

I'd dearly love Galopin Des Champs to win his third Cheltenham Gold Cup on the trot, and go down as a true great. I was at the winners enclosure when Best Mate won his third and it was some reception. He's still the one to beat in my eyes, he's just so suited to the nature of the race. Fact To File and Fastorslow look to be the biggest dangers. I'm very surprised they are not targeting Fastorslow at the King George, which would look right up his street. A strong traveller and a low and quick jumper, Kempton would appear ideal for him. 

The Grand National showed last year just how classy a race it has become recently, due to the 'easing' of the fences and now the smaller field. I feel we could be in for a great Grand National in April, if all the main protagonists get to the race. We have around ten or so top class animals who look real Aintree types, and look as if they'll improve for the trip. With last seasons winner I Am Maximus certain to go back, and likely to be at the head of the weights I can see JP McManus having a very strong hand, and trying to protect the handicap marks of his other horses. A similar type to I Am Maximus is the Gavin Cromwell trained Inothewayurthinkin. He'll still only be seven years old come the race and it remains to be seen whether they do target the race, but I'd imagine it has to be on their radar. If they can keep him on a mark of 157 he'd likely be around the eleven stone mark. Not the neatest jumper by any means he compares to I Am Maximus in this department, but his finishing efforts in winning both the Kim Muir Handicap Chase and the Grade One Mildmay Novices Chase suggest he's still got plenty in hand and he'll cope with the trip. I can see Chianti Classico taking well to the race and leading the field a merry dance for a long way. They'll need to manage his handicap mark however and any further rises in the weights will hamper his chances if they don't. One who is already earmarked to have his handicap mark of 151 protected throughout the season is the Irish Grand National winner Intense Raffles. This looks a good move by connections and should get him in at around the ten stone eight pounds mark. A grey by Martaline was second in 2023 (Vanillier) and this progressive six year old should have a decent chance of going one better for his sire next year.

Novices

 

At the time of writing the early indications from Nicky Henderson are that Sir Gino will remain over hurdles. I don't like this move at all, and I'd be setting him free over fences straight away. He looks like he'll make a brilliant chaser, and they just need to go and do it for me. There are plenty of high profile horses over the years who went chasing at four year old and it didn't interfere with their careers.​ Another similar type has already been earmarked for chasing, Majborough. A real physical specimen made for fences, he should appreciate the switch to chasing. It's a shame the intermediate trip of the Turners Novices Chase has been removed from the Cheltenham Festival, as that race would have looked right up his street at this stage of his career. Although described by Mullins' as a 'three mile chaser' I'd be very sceptical as to him going three miles this season. I'd imagine he may stay at two miles for now but come the spring, the two miles four furlongs Grade One Novice Chases at Aintree or Fairyhouse could well be his target. 

It sounds like Impaire Et Passe is now going novice chasing and likely to go down the two mile route. He looks a big player, even though I'd have preferred to see him go chasing last autumn. Sometimes keeping them over hurdles an extra season gets them used to that discipline a bit too much. Hopefully it won't have effected him.

With regards to Ballyburn, the decision I would be making is to go novice chasing. I'd campaign him at the mid-trip with an aim of stepping him up to three miles for the Brown Advisory Novice Chase at Cheltenham. I see him as a horse you have to dream of the Gold Cup with and connections will have been doing this all along. The pace he has shown is a big positive when combining it with his stamina-laden pedigree, you still need pace to win a Gold Cup. They'll have had it in mind since buying him after his point to point victory. With regards to his style of racing, I don't see it as an issue. He travels strongly, and because of his low head carriage, most people think he's too keen and needs to be kept to shorter trips. I think he'll become more tractable over fences and become a kinder ride. I'll try to explain my way of thinking on the trip. Now I'm not trying to crab Ballyburn here, (I'm a huge fan and people who know me, know how much I liked him after his rules debut) but in his novice hurdle campaign everything went perfect for him. He was beaten on hurdle debut, in a slowly run affair at the minimum trip by Firefox. Both his runs subsequently came at Leopardstown. Firstly he bolted up by twenty-five lengths in his maiden hurdle at two miles four furlongs, then won his Grade One at the minimum trip. From memory the track had very heavy rain the night before each race, turning the ground very testing. Both days had low sun so the last hurdle was taken out so there were two hurdles less each race. So from jumping the last hurdle (normal second last) they had a three furlongs run-in. I've never been to Leopardstown yet but I hear so much about how it has a gradual but very stiff finish. All of this has clearly paid to a stayers strengths, and he galloped on relentlessly both times. Now to some extent he does clearly have some 'change of gear', but to me it's more 'lengthening away', rather than the instant 'turn of speed' which Faugheen for example had. When winning the Ballymore (again we had very heavy rain the day before) he's outpaced them turning in and then galloped on very strongly up the hill, he'd have doubled his winning margin in another furlong. Kept at two miles four furlongs at Punchestown, the decent ground and slowly run nature of the race contributed to his least impressive display. He actually came off the bridle turning in, before his class told and he went away by three lengths. In short, faced with good ground in a two mile hurdle race I believe he'd be vulnerable, especially to the type of Champion Hurdlers we have around at this time. 

I also believe his stablemate Dancing City will be aimed at the Brown Advisory Novices Chase. From Mullins' comments he seems to think he'll make a very good chaser. 

In England it wouldn't surprise me to see Gidleigh Park have a very good season in two mile four furlong to three mile novice chasers and line up as the main threat to the Irish runners in the Brown Advisory Novice Chase. I wouldn't be too disappointed with his effort when sixth in the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle last season. Many top class chasers have ran poorly in that race, especially with the ground being heavy, and him being too keen. He has loads of scope and fences should improve him plenty.

 

The new look NH Chase will be easier to assess after Christmas, though I do have a few in mind early doors.

Down Memory Lane still has more to offer on his switch to chasing. He looks like he'll always appreciate better ground and could well be aimed at a decent handicap in the spring. One who looks really interesting in handicaps would be Waterford Whispers, although it is not De Bromhead's style to campaign with handicaps in mind, it most certainly is with JP. I didn't back him in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle where he finished second, but he impressed me with the way he went through the race, and if he has a similar season this time around he'll have a live chance in March. It'll be interesting how Springwell Bay has progressed after another few starts over fences. He could potentially end up landing a nice handicap in the spring.

Salvator Mundi was a hugely impressive winner of his maiden hurdle in April, by no less than sixty two lengths. While very hard to judge his full ability on that run, he is clearly high class and can sustain a proper gallop. If impressing through the season his style of front running fits in with several of Mullins' Supreme Novice Hurdle winners. As mentioned Romeo Coolio looks top class, but will likely improve again over fences. The 'form' bumper horse Jeroboam Machin seems to be taking a while to get over his injury. French recruit Kel Histoire could be a lively outsider for one of the festival novice hurdles. He impressed me in winning his APQS flat race, quickening up nicely having looked in trouble to win going away. The form of those in behind has worked out nicely too. 

As mentioned the staying novice hurdlers are better judged after a run or two, when we can get a clearer view of their stamina and battling qualities for a race such as the Albert Bartlett.

 

Regarding the Mares division, Maughreen is clearly the most exciting so far, though that's reflected in the market. Her bumper win was very taking. Mullins look's to have several French recruits, the most interesting may well be Karoline Banbou.

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